Election analysis

In Exeter and East Devon, the political landscape will be shifting before a vote has even been cast, and across the wider South West there are a number of key battleground seats to watch, writes Drew Aspinwall. 

Having swept all before them at the 2019 Election – winning 48 of the region’s 55 seats – the Conservatives will face the dual threat of Labour and the Liberal Democrats in differing parts of the region. Recent polling points to the fact that even seats with majorities of 10,000-plus could be at risk for the Conservatives.

With just six seats in the region, Labour is well below its 2001 high-water mark of 16. For the Lib Dems, gone are the days of the South West being their stronghold under Paddy Ashdown and Charles Kennedy. However, having overturned large Conservative majorities in by-elections in Tiverton & Honiton and Somerton & Frome, they will be hopeful of winning further seats in the region.

Having represented Exeter and South West Devon respectively since 1997, longstanding MPs Sir Ben Bradshaw (Lab) and Sir Gary Streeter (Con) are standing down. Unless something very unforeseen happens in between time, which given the last few years is always a possibility, both parties should be able to hold these seats without too much difficulty.

During the 27 years that Ben Bradshaw has been the MP, the city has undergone huge changes, it feels like a very different place in comparison. Many of the major changes and ambitions for Exeter and the sub-region have been realised over this time, boosting the attractiveness of the city and raising the profile Exeter nationally and internationally.

It is worth remembering that in 1997, it was another three years before the Met Office announced Exeter as the preferred location for its new headquarters, relocating from its then existing facility in Bracknell. At the time, the then Under Secretary of State for Defence, Dr Lewis Moonie stated that: “Exeter will offer an excellent environment for Met Office staff. It has all the necessary links and local facilities for a world-leading weather centre.” 

The positive economic and reputational benefit for Exeter and Devon of this decisive move should never be overlooked. Thinking about all facilities and links that the city now has compared to 24 years ago, most were levered in, in some way, due to the fact that Exeter was chosen over rivals Norwich and Reading and confidence in the city began to build outside of those of us who were already in the know.

The growth of Exeter University, the rise of the Exeter Chiefs, the redeveloped Princesshay, Ikea, John Lewis, new business parks, the opening of new city train stations, improved cycling, walking routes and public open space, new homes and complete neighbourhoods have all happened in the last two decades.

Given this impressive list, prospective parliamentary candidates will need to be pretty sharp in communicating and selling their own visions for the city when talking to potential voters about Exeter of the future. 

At the very least, I hope that Exeter’s next MP will be as good a constituency MP as Ben has been. Present, responsive, approachable, even when cycling at speed, and he even appeared to write his own letters back when you contacted him about local issues.

All basic stuff I would argue but, sadly, increasingly rare qualities in those who chose to stand for public office in recent times. I, for one, wish him well on his life outside the political spotlight.

* An extended version of this article appears in the June issue of Exeter Tomorrow magazine, out next week.