Exeter-led study finds pause in Arctic melt

An Exeter-trained climate scientist has led new research showing that Arctic sea ice has been melting more slowly over the past 20 years – even as the world experiences record levels of global warming.

The study, led by Dr Mark England while at the University of Exeter and now at the University of California, Irvine, examined satellite records dating back to 1979.

It found that between 2005 and 2024, Arctic sea ice shrank at less than half the rate seen in earlier decades.

Scientists believe the slowdown is due to natural variations in the climate temporarily offsetting the impact of human-driven global warming. However, they warn it is only a pause – and when it ends, the rate of sea ice loss is expected to speed up again.

“This is only a temporary reprieve,” said Dr England. “Arctic summer sea ice is already a third lower than it was when records began nearly 50 years ago. The slowdown is consistent with climate models, but we know it won’t last. Once the pause ends, sea ice decline will likely accelerate.”

The research analysed September ice levels, when Arctic sea cover reaches its annual minimum. Losses since 2005 have been around 0.3 million square kilometres per decade – compared to nearly 0.8 million square kilometres per decade over the longer term.

Similar slowdowns have been reproduced in climate models, suggesting the Arctic slowdown is not unusual, but a feature of how natural and human-made factors combine.

The team estimates there is a 50% chance the slowdown will last another five years, and a 25% chance it could continue for a decade.

The findings have been published in Geophysical Research Letters under the title Minimal Arctic sea ice loss in the last 20 years, consistent with internal climate variability.