Peter Moore: Torbay is not ‘crime-ravaged’ - Just ask Inspector Barnaby

I recently saw a dramatic headline on social media. Plymouth, Torbay and Exeter have the highest crime rate in Devon and Cornwall.

They went further suggesting that the three towns are the most “crime-ravaged” in the area. Unsurprisingly, the lowest crime rate was on the Isles of Scilly.

It does not require an expert in statistics to work out that the areas with the most people have the most crime. Hidden in the article was the statistic pointing out that Devon and Cornwall have one of the lowest crime rates in the UK. 

So where is the most dangerous place to live in England? There is now clear winner, the village of Midsommer. In twenty-eight years they have had at least 388 murders. If we include suicides and other strange deaths, there are over 500. This makes their murder rate 3.2 per 100,000 compared with the UK average of one per 100,000.

Despite the awful murder rate in this fictional village, it is still substantially below the rate in the real US which is over double at 6.18 per 100.000. But Midsommer and the US look like the safest places on Earth when compared to the murder capital of the World, El Salvador with a rate of 61.8 per 100,000.

Elon Musk claims the UK is a police state but, as Larry the cat pointed out online, there were two people shot by UK police in 2024/5, in the US it was 1,280.  Perhaps we should tell him that London has one of the lowest homicide rates of any major city in the world.

The good news for Midsommer is that they have Inspector Barnaby who has a 100% clear up rate; he always gets his man or woman. He is helped by his junior Jamie Winter, although I am told that I should not use the word junior even for junior doctors It upsets people, especially juniors.

I have to admit that our murders in South Devon are not as exciting as Midsommer although the police do have a similar clear up rate of almost 100%. As far as I know we have never had anyone run over by a massive cheese, crushed by tins of relish after a forklift truck chase or being tied to a bullseye and being hit with bottles of wine. 

In the real world it is often clear who did it. The only debate is whether it was a tragic one off, manslaughter, or premeditated murder. I saw one case where the victim was beaten up after not paying his drug dealers and another of a homophobic killing. There were also horrific cases of domestic violence. Subtle “who done its” they were not. Despite being in Torquay I never saw an Agatha Christie type murder. There are not enough butlers to be blamed. 

Unfortunately, public perception is not always the same as reality. Nationally a majority of people believe that London is a crime ridden dangerous place. The only place in the country where a majority believe London in safe is London. Londoners should know. They live there.   

There are crimes which have increased such as shop lifting and knife crime but the overall trend is down. Shoplifting is a problem and costs all of us in our grocery bills but it is not a crime which affects inspector Barnaby. Midsommer Shoplifters would not have had the same appeal as Midsommer Murders. 

But even El Salvador looks safe compared to medieval England. A panel of Royal Justices called the Eyre travelled the country to judge all homicides. England was not a peaceful place. The 1278 London Eyre court recorded about six homicides a year. If we assume the population for London to be around 40,000, the homicide rate was about fifteen per 100,000.

In England this probably dropped to ten per 100,000 by 1600, and one per 100,000 today unless you live in Midsomer.  Research on homicides in Kent from 1560 to 1985 showed a continuous tenfold fall over the 400 years. The same fall is seen in violent crime as well as murder, although this is difficult to measure. Other research has shown a similar fall in violence and murder in Norway, Sweden and the Netherlands. 

When social media tells us that Plymouth, Exeter and Torbay are crime ravaged it is a good thing there was no social media in 1278.